On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security.
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security. Alaska sits at the heart of some of America's thorniest geopolitical challenges. Its renewable resources, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater make it a critical part of the country's energy and technology futures, while its strategic location near Russia and China underscores its geopolitical importance. No one understands better than Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who drills into Alaska's energy and economic potential and discusses US national security concerns within a melting Arctic on the GZERO World Podcast.
Host: Ian Bremmer
Guest: Mike Dunleavy
Ian Bremmer:
Hello and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast. This is where you'll find extended versions of my interviews on public television. I'm Ian Bremmer, and today we're going “North to the future!” That is Alaska's state motto, not its bird, not its flower, and not a bad slogan for today's episode because we're going north, way, way north of the lower 48, to the land of the Northern Lights and the Iditarod to take a look at a state that's becoming a critically important part of America's energy tech, environmental, and geopolitical future. Alaska is a state most Americans don't spend much time thinking about. I mean, I don't. It's sparsely populated. It's reliably red during elections, so it's not really a part of the political conversation. But Alaska does sit at the heart of the country's most important issues. Alaska's renewable resources and huge natural gas reserves make it a critical part of the US energy future.
And as melting polar ice caps open up untapped resources and shipping routes in the Arctic, Alaska gives the US a voice in the region. Deposits, rare earth metals used to power computer chips and fresh water used to cool big data centers make Alaska a key part of our technology future and its proximity to Russia puts it in the first line of defense against an aggressive neighbor and an important part of broader national security. Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy understands all this better than most. He says, “The next 50 years belong to Alaska,” even though nobody asked me about that. I sat down with Governor Dunleavy to talk about Alaska's economic opportunities and challenges, its role in national security, the energy transition, and its increasingly important position in the Arctic. Let's get to it. Governor Mike Dunleavy. So good to have you on GZERO World.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
It's great to be here, Ian.
Ian Bremmer:
So most Americans from the lower 48, they don't spend a lot of time in Alaska. They think of beautiful territory. They think of a lot of resources and polar bears. What is the single thing that you think most Americans need to better understand about your state?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
That we are an energy and economic giant, and we are the Arctic and Western Pacific sovereign for the United States of America.
Ian Bremmer:
What are the biggest opportunities right now given that?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Boy, across the board. Most people that study history know that Alaska was purchased from the Russians in 1867 by William Seward. We're probably the only state that reveres a Secretary of State, but unbelievable amounts of resources. We have 49 of the world's 50 rare earths elements. We have some of the largest lead zinc mines in the world up there. Largest gold mine on the planet is up there. Largest graphite mine in North America is up there. The list goes on and on. Three times the fresh water of any other state. Our proximity on the globe is second to none. We are an oil giant, so we were producing a million barrels a day back in the late ‘80s, early ‘90s. We still have billions of barrels of oil. We have over a hundred trillion cubic feet of gas that we're trying to market. So energy for our Western Asian allies, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and others, but also our renewable resources are tremendous.
Our wind resources, we have 150 volcanoes, 50 are active, so our geothermal resources are off the charts. Second largest tides in the world for tidal energy right by Anchorage, Alaska. Between the federal lands and the state lands, over 140 million acres of for all kinds of uses to biofuels, to woods resources to wood chips, you name it, wood pellets. The list just keeps going on and on, and Alaska is poised I think, as I tell people, the next 50 years I think will belong to Alaska because of our energy resources and our proximity on the globe.
Ian Bremmer:
Now, the United States today is the largest fossil fuel energy producer in the world. The United States for gas, for oil, and also is a country that is thinking a lot about transition and renewables and what climate change is going to mean for the economy. Given all of that, have the last few years would you say Alaska has been a beneficiary of those trends or has it been more of a challenge for Alaska to navigate those trends?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Both. I see us being a beneficiary. Certainly the problem that Alaska deals with is our relationship with our own federal government. A lot of folks in the federal government, and associate with our federal government, view Alaska as a large national park. So as a result of that, oftentimes we are not supported in our efforts to develop lands in Alaska that could produce minerals, that could produce more oil and gas that could harvest our timber. But at the same time, the new economy as they call it, provides Alaska with tremendous opportunities. We're an all-in state. You mentioned transition. We really don't see it as a transition. We see it as an additionality. Given what the server farms are asking in terms of electrical output, the supercomputers, the electrification of the world. In order to do that, you're not going to be able to do that currently, at least in the foreseeable future, just on wind or solar without some type of exponential leap in technology on batteries and storage.
So we see Alaska, again with all of its resources, being able to be a net provider to the country and to the world in terms of energy. And so we got to work in some permitting processes with the federal government, but we also have to change some attitudes with the federal government. Some folks associated with the federal government, including NGOs believe it's better to ship the need for minerals and the need for oil and gas overseas. To the detriment of Alaska, but also for those folks that believe in the environment, you really want to do it all here in America because we keep an eye on it. We do it better than anywhere else in the planet. So we have our challenges, but I think the next 50 years it's going to belong to Alaska.
Ian Bremmer:
So when I think about the last five years, we've got the USMCA, which is an important trade deal that's facilitated great integration, Alaska with Canada, the United States with Mexico and Canada also seeing the Inflation Reduction Act. A lot of money being spent on creating jobs for transition energy, for infrastructure. Lord knows way overdue in the United States. How's Alaska fit into those processes?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
We have billions of dollars earmarked to Alaska as a result of some of the acts that you just mentioned. Also, we are undergoing a huge broadband expansion across Alaska. We have 200 communities that are off our road system, and so a lot of those communities don't have the access to broadband like our municipalities, our major cities and urban areas. And so we're a huge beneficiary of that. What we have to keep an eye on as well as others is again, the permitting process. So that money just doesn't lay on the table for years and years. The ability to make sure our supply chains are there. I mean we're hearing that anything related to electrical transmission, including your transformers, are two, three, four years out and back ordered in many cases. And so we just have to make sure that the money is deployed quickly and permitting is going to be huge in that. And also, again, the supply chains have got to keep up with this demand. The exponential use and demand for electrical energy is through the roof, and so we've got to keep working on that diligently.
Ian Bremmer:
How much of that has gotten worse post-pandemic or is most of that issue solved?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
There was a world before the pandemic, and there's a world after. The world after is a world of labor shortages. It's a world of demographic decline. It's a world of supply chain issues, and it's a world of very steep incline and demand on anything electrical. And so all of that is coming together to really make it a difficult period in time to get things done. And so that's some of the stuff we're going to have to tackle across the board. Again, permitting, labor, supply chain, the integration between Canada and the United States. I think you're going to also see more regionalization. A move away from globalization where North America, I think if it focuses not inward at the exclusion of the world but focuses inward to make sure that we have our strategic needs taken care of here in North America. I think you're going to see more integration with Canada, the United States, and hopefully our partners to the South as well.
Ian Bremmer:
Since you mentioned labor, and we know demographics are a challenge all over the world today, very few countries where you see sustainable replacement levels for children with the people that we're losing. What does Alaska do in that environment as a frontier that needs a significant amount of capable young labor?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
So I'm a proponent of the philosophy of a very strong wall on the southern border, but many, many doors. In other words, we need immigration in the United States. We are a country of immigrants and we need more immigration. We just have to make sure that we have processes set up to bring immigrants in, but they are vetted. So we make sure that the people that are coming into this country support what the country stands for. Is there going to be a net benefit to the country? We're also in Alaska, for example-
Ian Bremmer:
Is it fair to say that we're not getting enough of the talent that your state, for example, needs right now?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
In Alaska, I would say that's true. We are working in Alaska on bringing in more Ukrainian immigrants. As a matter of fact, we've brought in over a thousand Ukrainian immigrants here in the past year. We're hoping to increase that. These are people obviously are fleeing the conflict in the Ukraine, but these are people that are in many cases, highly skilled. They're truck drivers, they're welders, they're plumbers, et cetera. Alaska's seeing the benefit of that. Coupled with that though, is you have to make sure you have your housing needs taken care of. And we know there's housing issues across the country. We're working on that as well. We've passed a couple bills this year that we hope will enable more housing to be built. But post-COVID is a very chaotic world, Ian, compared to pre-COVID. And the future's really going to belong to those that can make sense of this chaos and get their sovereigns, they're businesses, they're entities on a track that's going to capitalize on this.
And so for anyone that is going to approach the future world, they're going to limit opportunities, they're going to decide that they're only going to use a certain type of energy production or a certain type of energy transmission, I think they're going to fall behind. And so those that believe that there is a transition, I think it's more of an additionality for some time to come to be honest with you. I think fossil fuels are going to be a component. And I think if we put a little more research, a little more money into sequestering the carbon, I think the carbon issue could have been and still can be dealt with. But fossil fuels, renewables of any type, even future concepts of energy we're not even thinking about are all going to have to be on the table.
Ian Bremmer:
Energy doesn't move very well. Data does.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Yes.
Ian Bremmer:
And as an energy power for the Western Hemisphere, not just for the United States, how far is Alaska down the road of saying, “We want to bring data centers at scale to our state.”
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
We're there now. We have the land capable of supporting data centers. We have three times the fresh water of any other state in the country for cooling purposes. We have a cooler climate. You're not going to have to design your buildings or work hard to expel heat in Alaska as much as you do in other places. And we have tremendous energy capability that we're starting to capitalize on now. As we mentioned, from geothermal to wind to solar in Alaska, but also our fossil fuels. And we passed a nuke siting bill, nuclear siting bill two years ago, which will enable us to also site small nuclear reactors. So Alaska is an all-in approach to energy. We are open for business, and I think our tax regimes would also be something that those that are involved in the data farming, the data factories would also want to look at Alaska for. Because I think we have a lot going for us in Alaska.
Ian Bremmer:
Some of those conversations with the tech companies already really happening?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Yeah, we're having conversations. We went to the Nvidia conference here in the spring, got to meet a number of those folks, great people. We've been in contact with them and some of the folks that they do business with and that build data factories and data farms. And they see Alaska once again, whether its water, its land, its tax regime, its cold climate and its potential energy as a real opportunity. Because as you said, there was a time we thought that the data centers had to be located where there's absolutely the best connectivity. That's not necessarily the case anymore.
And in Alaska situation, this bodes well for us and it bodes well also because this is an opportunity for some of these data factories, supercomputer entities, to be able to look at a locale in the world that is American, has all of this energy, has all this fresh water, but also we don't necessarily have to compete if we set this up the right way with residential utility costs. For example, you're seeing this happen in some places on the East Coast where there's supercomputers. The demand for energy is so great that it's competing with residential needs for energy. I think in Alaska we could do both really well.
Ian Bremmer:
So I want to pivot to national security. I mean, Alaska as a Pacific power is of course-
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
And an Arctic power.
Ian Bremmer:
And an Arctic power is critical to American national security. The relations with Russia are now worse than at any point since the Cold War. Relationship with Russia increasingly challenged, and Alaska's on the front lines of surveillance and response capabilities. How have you seen behaviors from the Russians, from the Chinese in the Pacific affecting what you're doing?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Most people don't realize this, but we are further west than even Hawaii. We're a thousand miles closer to Australia, for example, than even California. Just the way the globe works and the geography is laid out. We have Chinese warships come up through the Bering Strait. We have had Russian ships forever plying the Bering Strait as well. We are within the reach of the North Korean missiles in Alaska. So Alaska is truly the real operational fort for North America. I know we have forts in other states, but we have Russian bombers that overfly our state, if not twice, maybe three times a month.
And our Air Force capability up there obviously moves them out. So we're seeing more activity. We know that there are issues in Asia including Taiwan and China. And if there is conflict there, Alaska is going to be unfortunately part of that because the military presence that we have in Alaska will probably end up supplying a number of troops and the equipment and personnel to deal with that conflict at whatever level that's going to be. And so Alaska is a true operating fort. We're on the front lines. We're two and a half miles from Russia, literally between the island of Little Diomede and Big Diomede, Little Diomede being American, Big Diomede being Russian. We see Chinese warships and we have interceptors to help deal with Korean missile threats. So heightened activity, and I would anticipate we're probably going to see more focus on our military in the future, and that probably should happen.
Ian Bremmer:
Since the invasion of Ukraine by the Russians, again, we've seen asymmetrical attacks, we've seen a lot more exercises. Any change in what you have been experiencing with the Russians?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Not from our perspective on the ground in terms of a state government. What's happening in Russia is in the far West. We're in the far East with regard to Russia. We're in their back door. So we have not seen heightened activity other than, as I mentioned, we've had Russian flyovers in our aerospace probably for decades, but nothing significant. Nothing really to report on.
Ian Bremmer:
And coordination between the Chinese and the Russians against Siberia. Huge amount of territory, not a lot of people. Most of that investment, to the extent that it's happened, has been Chinese of late. How do you think about that?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
I think we went from the belief, the concept, the hope and globalism. I think post-COVID again, and because of these conflicts, I think you're starting to see the world reorganize itself. And I think you're going to see it reorganize itself into, for lack of a better term, regionalism. We talked about Canada, we talked about the United States. Again, our neighbors to the south, Mexico, our allies in Western Europe and our allies in Eastern Asia, the Japanese, the Koreans, Philippines, et cetera. I think you're going to see more coordination between those countries as you will between China and Russia. Some have laid out a future in which China is going to really invest in Siberia for the purpose of their resources. Whether it's power, whether it's dams, whether it's roads, et cetera. It makes sense from that perspective that they're on the same continent or in close proximity. So I think you're going to see regionalism. I think you see more and more cooperation between the Chinese and the Russians, and I think you'll see more cooperation between the North American sovereigns and our allies in the Pacific as well as our allies in Europe.
Ian Bremmer:
And you mentioned the Arctic, and of course being here in Canada, it's one of the few places that we see the Canadians actually doing a lot more than the United States on balance. Talk about how Alaska is playing a greater role in the Arctic given the geopolitical challenges right now.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Well, we've always had a great military presence up in Alaska. We have a robust air force with some of the best technology, F-35 fighters, large Army presence, largest Coast Guard presence in the United States is there. We are lacking on things though, for example, and surprisingly like icebreakers. We only have two in the United States. Because of Alaska's position and what is happening now geopolitically and with a warming Arctic, Alaska should have a minimum of five, in my opinion, five icebreakers.
We've always had close cooperation with Canada. We have a joint Canadian post at Elmendorf Air Force Base. We work jointly and closely with the Canadians on Arctic sovereignty, Arctic security. Probably going to see that increase given what's happening with the North Korean threats, Chinese plying the waters in the Bering Strait and as well as robust, but probably increasing Russian presence. And so again, I think what's going to happen is you're probably going to see more discussions on increased Navy activity in Alaska as well as again, the need for more icebreakers to do joint patrols with our Canadian friends to the East.
Ian Bremmer:
I hear this from the Canadians all the time. Is there no plan to put those?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
No, there's some in the hopper. I think we need to speed that process up and increase the numbers. I think what happened, Ian, was over the decades we did have a robust military approach presence in Alaska. And I think that and the fact that for many months in the year, the parts of Alaska are frozen, right? The Chukchi Sea, the Arctic Ocean, the Bering Sea, that's changing. The geopolitical equation is changing. The post-COVID issues, as we mentioned with realignment of alliances and countries is changing. And China's flexing its muscles in the Bering Strait and in the Arctic. That's changing as well. So I think as a result of that, I hope to see a different approach by Washington involving our armed forces in Alaska.
Ian Bremmer:
And I haven't asked you, but obviously economic opportunities because suddenly the Arctic's passable, the shipping lanes, also life is changing in terms of climate on the ground. I see that a lot of your ice roads are no longer passable, things like that. What's the biggest impact that you are feeling that needs to be addressed from the fact that climate for our frontier state is changing pretty dramatically?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
I think you're going to see more opportunities, to be honest with you in the Arctic in terms of shipping. I think you're going to see some sea routes open up over the next several decades, and Alaska is going to, I think, poise the benefit from that because you have to come down through a pinch point. If you look at the map called the Bering Strait, and Alaska is part of that, and Russia is part of that. And so I think there's opportunities for Alaskans, especially in the northern western coast, to make sure that we're there to be able to supply and help ships in distress. I think you're going to see a larger Coast Guard presence over time there to help with the same issues. I think like the Panama Canal, I think the North is going to have its own version of the Panama Canal, and it's going to be Alaska's, like I mentioned, Alaska's decade, the next 50 years. I think it'll be Alaska's half century.
Ian Bremmer:
So before we close, I have to ask you at least a question or two about the election in the United States. And look, Alaska is not exactly up for grabs. It's not a swing state, but of course it's relevant. And after the recent convictions of Trump, you call that a horrible day for the country. Tell me a little bit, not about why you like Trump, why you don't like Biden, but more about what you think this election means for the country, where you think we are as a democracy right now?
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Well, under President Trump, every opportunity that we had a discussion with his administration and the president himself on was, in my opinion, taken advantage of. We would have conversations with the administration, the president himself. He would fly to Alaska on his trips over to Asia. We would meet. It was always a conversation, “What can we do for Alaska?” How can we help Alaska capitalize on its opportunities? It was consistent. Unfortunately-
Ian Bremmer:
They're commercial conversations. The business conversations.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Business conversations, correct. Whether it's our mining, whether it's our oil or timber, you name it, correct. This administration unfortunately, it's been the opposite. And I think that's been driven by, to be perfectly honest with you, NGOs related to the environmental world. A lot of folks view Alaska not as a state, but as this jewel that should be a national park. The fact of the matter is it is a state. It's the 49th state. Millions of acres were already taken off the table and put in the federal parks and monuments, but there are still people that want to continue that process.
Alaska's Constitution and Alaska's Statehood Act is unique amongst all the states. We were not going to be allowed to become a sovereign, a state in 1959 unless we agreed to collectivize all of our resources under the sovereign. So unlike Texas, which is really the largest state in terms of private land ownership, Alaska is the opposite. We had to collectivize our resources. And the reason for that is the federal government did not believe we could pay for our way with a broad-based tax, like a sales tax or an income tax. So they compelled us to do that, to compel us to develop our resources. That promise on their side has fallen short, especially on this administration. We currently have 65, what we call “actions,” some call sanctions. We call actions against our state by the current administration. When you compare that to Iran, I think there's nine sanctions against Iran.
Ian Bremmer:
I think it's easier to do business with Alaska still at the end of the day.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
I would hope so, and I would hope that it would be easier to do business with Washington. But it's been difficult this year. So you asked me the differences and the comparisons. I would say that the previous administration under President Trump was all about opportunity. I think if he returns to office, which it's looking good, Alaska's going to poise America. I think North America is going to benefit greatly. I just wish under the last four years that the federal government in Washington would realize that Alaska is a solution to a lot of the problems that we are looking at in terms of mining, in terms of timber, oil and gas.
Ian Bremmer:
Governor Mike Dunleavy, thanks for joining us.
Gov Mike Dunleavy:
Thank you.
Ian Bremmer:
That's it for today's edition of the GZERO World podcast. Do you like what you heard? Of course you do. Why not make it official? Why don't you rate and review GZERO World five stars, only five stars. Otherwise, don't do it, on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Tell your friends.